About the simulator
The simulator is a first of its kind tool that uses data from 400+ publications and surveys from 500+ endocrinologists around the globe, to offer the most accurate estimate of T1D ever created. You can explore the impact increased or decreased diagnosis rates and access to care have on the population, across countries, regions and income groups.
Model the effects of care and diagnosis through our simulator.
Change the numbers, change the story
Diagnosis rate
100%
89% global average in 2025
0%
100%
Advanced care
80%
66% global average in 2025
0%
100%
Year applied
2025
2000
2030
Without any interventions, the current trajectory estimates that there will be 14,737,100 people with T1D and 6,658,600 lives lost to T1D globally in 2040, based on an estimated 90.0% diagnosis rate and 69.0% provision of default advanced care.
Establishing a 100% diagnosis rate and 80% access to default advanced care by 2025 will result in +256,400 lives lost compared to the current trajectory, and +1,272,000 people receiving advanced care globally by 2040.
The impact of this intervention will be unequal across countries. Changes in lives lost to T1D will range from -326,500 in India to +314,400 in United States.
Simulated people with T1D (2040)
16,101,800
Simulated missing people (2040)
7,410,000
Simulation applied
People with T1D over time
More people with T1D
More lives lost to T1D
Here 1 circle represents 5,000 people
India
Net change in people with T1D
+325,700
United States
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+314,400
Russia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+93,900
Brazil
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+89,200
United Kingdom
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+86,600
Germany
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+78,800
China
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+64,300
Algeria
Net change in people with T1D
+58,700
Ukraine
Net change in people with T1D
+51,100
Canada
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+49,000
Morocco
Net change in people with T1D
+48,200
Nigeria
Net change in people with T1D
+47,800
France
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+44,800
Spain
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+37,000
Saudi Arabia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+34,600
Sudan
Net change in people with T1D
+32,700
Poland
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+31,300
Italy
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+30,700
Ethiopia
Net change in people with T1D
+27,700
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Net change in people with T1D
+27,100
Somalia
Net change in people with T1D
+26,400
Tanzania
Net change in people with T1D
+25,600
Iran
Net change in people with T1D
+24,000
Turkey
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+21,700
Syria
Net change in people with T1D
+21,100
Australia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+20,500
Uganda
Net change in people with T1D
+18,700
Argentina
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+17,200
Sweden
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+16,300
Kenya
Net change in people with T1D
+14,400
Japan
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+14,300
Mozambique
Net change in people with T1D
+13,500
Egypt
Net change in people with T1D
+13,300
Netherlands
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+13,100
Yemen
Net change in people with T1D
+12,300
Tunisia
Net change in people with T1D
+12,300
Finland
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+12,300
Angola
Net change in people with T1D
+11,700
Mexico
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+10,500
Hungary
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+10,600
Madagascar
Net change in people with T1D
+9,900
Ghana
Net change in people with T1D
+8,500
Czech Republic
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+8,600
Pakistan
Net change in people with T1D
+8,200
Cote d'Ivoire
Net change in people with T1D
+8,000
Uzbekistan
Net change in people with T1D
+7,300
Romania
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+7,400
South Sudan
Net change in people with T1D
+7,300
Cameroon
Net change in people with T1D
+7,300
Malawi
Net change in people with T1D
+7,300
Chile
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+7,200
Afghanistan
Net change in people with T1D
+7,100
Bulgaria
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+6,900
Norway
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+6,800
Belgium
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+6,800
Zambia
Net change in people with T1D
+6,300
Nepal
Net change in people with T1D
+6,200
Portugal
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+6,000
Denmark
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+5,900
Philippines
Net change in people with T1D
+5,700
Senegal
Net change in people with T1D
+5,600
Austria
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+5,600
Zimbabwe
Net change in people with T1D
+5,500
Eritrea
Net change in people with T1D
+5,300
South Korea
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+5,300
Bangladesh
Net change in people with T1D
+5,200
Jordan
Net change in people with T1D
+5,200
North Korea
Net change in people with T1D
+5,200
Viet Nam
Net change in people with T1D
+4,700
Slovakia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+4,500
Switzerland
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+4,300
Rwanda
Net change in people with T1D
+4,200
Libya
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+4,300
Greece
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+4,100
Taiwan
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+4,000
Israel
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+4,000
Benin
Net change in people with T1D
+3,900
Croatia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,800
Ireland
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,600
Belarus
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,500
Sri Lanka
Net change in people with T1D
+3,500
Kuwait
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,400
Lithuania
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,100
Serbia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,100
New Zealand
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+3,000
Mali
Net change in people with T1D
+2,800
Lebanon
Net change in people with T1D
+2,700
Puerto Rico
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+2,700
Burundi
Net change in people with T1D
+2,500
Myanmar
Net change in people with T1D
+2,500
Indonesia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+2,300
Tajikistan
Net change in people with T1D
+2,300
Colombia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+2,000
Uruguay
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,900
Thailand
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,800
Estonia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,800
Republic of Congo
Net change in people with T1D
+1,700
Cuba
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,600
Niger
Net change in people with T1D
+1,500
Latvia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,400
Mauritania
Net change in people with T1D
+1,300
Burkina Faso
Net change in people with T1D
+1,300
Slovenia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,200
Honduras
Net change in people with T1D
+1,200
Bolivia
Net change in people with T1D
+1,100
Palestine
Net change in people with T1D
+1,100
Djibouti
Net change in people with T1D
+1,100
Kazakhstan
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,000
Azerbaijan
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,000
Turkmenistan
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+1,000
Chad
Net change in people with T1D
+900
Georgia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+900
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+900
United Arab Emirates
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+800
Cambodia
Net change in people with T1D
+800
Qatar
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+800
Singapore
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+800
Iraq
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+800
Nicaragua
Net change in people with T1D
+700
Guinea
Net change in people with T1D
+700
Hong Kong
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+700
Oman
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+700
Malaysia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+700
Guatemala
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+600
Peru
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+600
Albania
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+600
Trinidad and Tobago
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+600
Cyprus
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+500
Ecuador
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+500
Togo
Net change in people with T1D
+500
Armenia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+500
South Africa
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+500
Kyrgyzstan
Net change in people with T1D
+500
Lesotho
Net change in people with T1D
+500
Sierra Leone
Net change in people with T1D
+500
Haiti
Net change in people with T1D
+500
Moldova
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+400
Laos
Net change in people with T1D
+400
Macedonia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+400
Luxembourg
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+400
Gabon
Net change in people with T1D
+300
Malta
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+300
Montenegro
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+300
Liberia
Net change in people with T1D
+300
Central African Republic
Net change in people with T1D
+300
Panama
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+300
Costa Rica
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+300
Mongolia
Net change in people with T1D
+300
Eswatini
Net change in people with T1D
+300
Bahrain
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+300
Comoros
Net change in people with T1D
+200
Jamaica
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+200
Iceland
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+200
El Salvador
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+200
Bahamas
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+200
Dominican Republic
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+200
Gambia
Net change in people with T1D
+200
Venezuela
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+200
Paraguay
Net change in lives lost to T1D
+100
Bhutan
Net change in people with T1D
+100
Guinea-Bissau
Net change in people with T1D
+100
Namibia
Net change in people with T1D
+100
Cape Verde
Net change in people with T1D
+100
Equatorial Guinea
Net change in people with T1D
+100
Barbados
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Papua New Guinea
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Timor L'Este
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Mayotte
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Sao Tome and Principe
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Martinique
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Macao
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Botswana
Net change in people with T1D
<100
United States Virgin Islands
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Mauritius
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Maldives
Net change in people with T1D
<100
St Vincent and the Grenadines
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Grenada
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
St Lucia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Brunei Darussalam
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Vanuatu
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Antigua and Barbuda
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Seychelles
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Belize
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Western Sahara
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Samoa
Net change in people with T1D
<100
New Caledonia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Kiribati
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Fiji
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Solomon Islands
Net change in people with T1D
<100
French Guiana
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
French Polynesia
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Suriname
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Federated States of Micronesia
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Tonga
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Aruba
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Curaçao
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Guyana
Net change in lives lost to T1D
<100
Guam
Net change in people with T1D
<100
Simulator not optimized for mobile
We're sorry, the simulator works best on widescreen / desktop devices and is not optimized for mobile.
Please switch to a desktop device or explore mobile-friendly pages.
Change the numbers, change the story
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